The other day while watching a FNC story about (then tropical storm, now) hurricane Ernesto they showed a graphic of the "predicted storm track." However, I really dont believe it COULD have been a real hurricane forecast. Basically all they did was draw a straight line to New Orleans and call that a forecast. This is moronic on many levels. For starters, the storm was so poorly organized at that point there was little way to know where the center of circulation would develop. This matters because there could have been a difference of 80 to 100 miles in its position. As it developed it organized on a more northerly track giving it less chance of even making it into the Gulf of Mexico. Secondly, these storms move so unpredictably that while a 24-36 hour forecast might be reasonably accurate (to within 100 miles or so), anything more than that is a crap shoot. But this graphic was claiming to show us 72+ hours into the future! It was simply preposterous.
What really bothered me, however, is just how ghoulish the whole thing was. It was as if they were wishing the storm would hit New Orleans. There was no scientific, or logical or common sense reason to forecast this storm hitting New Orleans, so why do it? Because it would make a great story if it did? People down in N.O. have enough to worry about without this garbage.
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