Tuesday, January 23, 2007

..The More They Stay The Same

More hurricane stuff I'm afraid. This time I looked at the top wind speeds of Atlantic hurricanes from 1967 to 2006. I've found a remarkable consistency in measurements over the forty years period that contradicts claims that hurricanes have become more violent because of global warming.

(All measurements are in knots/hour)

40 Year Top Wind Speed Average: 72.52
40 Year Top Wind Speed Median: 72.1

Breaking up the data into 4 ten year periods, I next counted the number of years in each decade where the average wind speeds were above the 40 year median. Presumably we should find that more years above the median should have occurred recently. This is not the case.

1967-1976: 4
1977-1986: 6
1987-1996: 5
1997-2006: 5

Actually, if you look at the average top wind speeds for the first half of the data and compare them with the second half you find they are, for all practical purposes, identical:

Average Top Wind Speed 1967-1986: 72.59
Average Top Wind Speed 1987-2006: 72.45

Actually, the second twenty year period would have been considerably less violent were it not for the outlier that was 1999 (average top wind speed 91.3.) The average for the other 19 years was only 71.46. Taking the top year away from the 67-86 time period led to a 71.99 average top wind speed. Still greater.

With this in mind, I wanted to see what the numbers would look like if we didn't use the highest and lowest numbers from each twenty year period. This would ensure that we did not have outliers masking some otherwise detectable change in intensity. However, all we find is a familiar story:

1967-1986: 80.65
1987-2006: 80.50

Seemingly, the more things (supposedly) change, the more they stay the same.

Of course you might just want to believe things like the following published with all due care and diligence in September 2005 by the World Socialist Web Site: "Studies link global warming with increased hurricane intensity"

Gee, I wonder what the chances are they have a political axe to grind?

The problem is not industrialization and economic growth, but the lack of either a planned economy or regulations


All they would like is a planned economy! Oh, and don't you think for a moment this is some play for political power. Obviously it is what science demands!

How silly of me.

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