Friday, June 01, 2007

It's Knock Me Over With A Feather Time

I got this from The USA Today: Climate change models overstate droughts

There will be more flooding and less drought than has been forecast in widely used projections of global warming, according to a new study.

The study using measurements taken by NASA weather satellites compared ocean rainfall from 1987 to 2006 to earlier climate model projections of what that precipitation would be. The models, based on physics equations, were found to be off the mark, according to the study released Thursday by the journal Science.

A computer model shown to be wrong? Say it ain't so, Joe. Say it ain't so!

"The increase in global rainfall associated with global warming may be three times greater than currently predicted," says study lead author Frank Wentz of Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) in Santa Rosa, Calif.

Oh, that's OK. We were only off 300%. It isn't as if it was a real significant difference.

In the last century, temperature records indicate average surface temperatures have risen roughly 1 degree, with a bigger increase, perhaps 3 to 7 degrees, projected by 2100.

And of course, you can have complete confidence in those numbers based upon how well we predicted the rainfall totals.
Projections have suggested that rainfall will rise in coming decades, but not as fast as temperature, leading to drier days and droughts worldwide. In February, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cited studies showing "extreme drought increasing from 1% of present-day land area to 30% by the end of the century."

The new study suggests models are flawed, underestimating how increased humidity in a warmer climate produces more rain clouds, Wentz said by e-mail.

Increasing humidity leads to more clouds?? How could anyone have possibly known about something so scientifically exotic! I mean, come on, do you expect scientists to know that, for example, monsoonal flows into the desert southwest lead to more clouds and rainfall! We are not supermen for crying out loud! We still need time off to watch American Idol!

The new findings suggest climate modelers are overstating how much rainfall will dry up in a warmer climate, says Wentz. "With respect to severe weather events like hurricanes, I am not sure what the implications are. But this much more rain worldwide could certainly pose one of the most serious risks (from flooding) associated with climate change," he says.

Yeah, that's right. That is what we meant to say the last twenty years. Global warming will lead to floods, not droughts. It is so easy to get those two words mixed up! really, it is a mistake that anyone could make. Honestly.

Please don't take away our research grants.

No comments: