Monday, July 09, 2007

Alarmism Denied (For A Change)

From CNN: National Hurricane Center director leaves position

National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza has left his position, CNN has learned. Sources say Proenza is still employed with the center, but the nature of his new position is unclear.

Deputy Director Ed Rappaport has been temporarily placed in charge.

Proenza, 62, became the director in January after the retirement of Max Mayfield.

His staffers issued a petition for his ouster last week and on Friday Proenza told CNN he had contacted his superiors in Washington about "ways to move forward," but added, "I am not going to resign."

The petition said the center's "effective functioning" is at stake as the Atlantic hurricane season heads toward its peak.

"An unfortunate public debate is now occurring over the ability of the National Hurricane Center to meet its mission," said the petition, which was released Thursday.

"The undersigned staff ... has concluded that the center needs a new director, and with the heart of the hurricane season fast approaching, urges the Department of Commerce to make this happen as quickly as possible."

Twenty-three people -- about half of the center's staff -- signed the petition.

Proenza told CNN he did not think the staff should dictate the leadership through "signing petitions."

Proenza caused an uproar last month with comments about a key hurricane satellite called QuikSCAT. The satellite is five years beyond its life expectancy and operating on a backup transmitter. Proenza said if it were to fail, forecast tracks could be thrown off by as much as 16 percent.

He said Washington reprimanded him for the remarks: "They wanted me to be quiet about it."

But one of the center's longtime forecasters said Proenza's comments were misguided.

"QuikSCAT is another tool that we use to forecast," Lixion Avila said. "The forecast will not be degraded if we don't have the QuikSCAT."

When I first heard Proenza's remarks last month I thought they were obviously BS, but understandable BS. It was exactly the sort of overblown remark bureaucrats make when they want to add something to the old budget line. Proenza wanted the replacement satellite for QuikSCAT on the fast track, which it presently is not. So what is better to do, in this post-Katrina world, then claim our ability to forecast hurricanes will be harmed? Anyone who really looked into the matter would know that our actual ability to forecast storms would not be negatively impacted in the least, but who cares??? It was just a bit of silly alarmism to boost the bottom line.

Well, it turns out lots of folks at the National Hurricane Center cared. If you pick up on anything by reading the literature about the folks at the NHC you pick up how important their credibility is to them. It has been hammered into them for decades that they can only be as effective as as their credibility allows them to be. They measure their effectiveness not just by how accurate their forecasts are (as important as that is), but also by how the general public reacts when they issue warnings. Ultimately, their effectiveness is measured by how many people take precautions and remove themselves from harms way based upon their word.

On one level, Proenza was simply playing a budget game that managers in almost every Federal agency play day in and day out. But, on another level, he was cheapening the word of the National Hurricane Center. I don't think Proenza is a bad guy. After all he was looking out for the well being of the organization. However, in doing so he forgot to look after the well being of the job that organization needs to perform.

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