Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Zogby Is An Awful Pollster

Why does anyone still give credence to the Zogby polls? I know, once upon a time, he had a good reputation but how many terribly performing polls in a row do you need before you say "Hmmm...whatever his methodology is, it doesn't seem to work very well."

Let's look at Zogby's take on the biggest battle yesterday, California.

Democrats:

Zogby's world: Obama 49% Clinton 36%
Real World: Obama 42% Clinton 52%

So that went from Obama +13% to Clinton +10%.

Abysmal.

Republicans:

Zogby's world: Romney 40% McCain 33%
Real World: Romney 34% McCain 42%

So that went from Romney +7% to McCain +8%.

Better than the Clinton/Obama race, but still pretty damn bad.

For folks who got it right in California look at these Mason-Dixson polls for the Democrats (had Clinton +9%) and Republicans (had McCain +9%).

No comments: