Saturday, December 05, 2009

The Magic Hockey Stick Maker!

Well, if you read real sources of news (i.e. not the BBC, sadly) you might have heard about a particularly suspect piece of code found in the CRU data leak. Here is that code (click to enlarge):



And here is the chart this produces when you plot a baseline value of "1.0" (click to enlarge):



Well, that sure kind of looks like a hockey stick, doesn't it? Now, I'm not sure we will ever be able to link this code with specific graphs CRU has had a hand in, but the fact the code exists in the first place is suspicious enough. To date I have not heard a single plausible defense of the existence of such a "trick." The only thing I've heard the alarmists claim is "You can prove anything!" which is, of course, just what criminals always say when they are first caught. Time will tell what we can or cannot prove.

In any event, I thought it would be fun to see what this "fudge factor" would do if you used it to plot real data....of any sort.

Well here is what this "trick" makes Wisconsin drunk driving fatalities look like:



Here is Stan "The Man" Musial's batting average from 1942-1962:



And, since it is so good at producing hockey sticks, I thought it only made sense to see what the St. Louis Blues winning percentage would look like (1967-68 to 1987-88):



If anyone can show this code was used to massage this data, there is one word for it...and that word is not "science."

"Fraud" would be more like it.

Really, can anyone think of a non-fraudulent use of the Magic Hockey Stick Maker?

ADDING:

Anyone new to the climate wars who wants to know exactly what is being talked about when you hear "hide the decline" should read this wonderful primer over at American Thinker.

No comments: